Bob Blog 23 Feb



Compiled Sun 23 Feb 2020

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.


The Tropics

Latest cyclone activity report is at and TCFP tropical Cyclone Formation Potential at (but not this week).

It has been busy in the South Pacific recently with TC VICKY bothering mainly Niue and TC WASI now near Samoa and heading for Niue tomorrow (Sunday local date). Since these two features have been so close to each other, they have actually mitigated things and stopped something larger from forming.

After TC WASI there is expected to be a lull in cyclone formation in the South Pacific for few weeks.



Weather Zones (see text) as expected Wednesday 00UTC showing isobars, winds, waves(magenta) STR, and SPCZ. Pink area = lightning likely (high CAPE)



SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

The SPCZ is expected to weaken this week and drift north, so mainly be from Tuvalu to Samoa to Niue and then fade off to the southeast.


Accumulated rainfall for next week from (isobars are for Sunday night).

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGHS, one well east of NZ and t’other in Tasman Sea, are expected to remain quasi-stationary and then fade by Wednesday. A new High is expected to develop east of the South Island on late Tuesday and then travel east along 40 to 45S.

Another High is expected to travel east over northern NZ from Thursday to Sunday.

Tasman Sea /NZ/Aus

Brief trough for southern NZ on Monday local, larger trough over South Island on Wednesday/Thursday, and another on Saturday followed by strong W to NW winds .

OK for Noumea to Australia.

As for sailing east across the Tasman: it may be possible south of 35S with a start on Monday or Tuesday. probably a no-go this week due to easterly winds.

From Panama to Galapagos/Marquesas:

Northerly winds to around 5N this week, the light winds to 4N, then SE winds to Galapagos.

The ITCZ has a gap in it between 85W and 79W, but doe s have outliers that reach as far south as Galapagos at times.

Winds are expected to be SE to north of Galapagos, so that’s an OK short cut to Marquesas this week, albeit showery at times.


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