Issued 22 February 2015
Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world
Cyclone MARCIA did a surprise increase to Category 5 on Friday and the had gusts over 200kph upon landfall – see my blog at https://metbob.wordpress.com/2015/02/20/tc-marcia-observations/
At present the remains on MARCIA are fading in the Tasman Sea
and the remains of LAM are over Western Australia: as shown below;
As seen at http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/
The weekly rain maps show increase of rain due to cyclones over northern Australia:
Weekly rain signatures for past two weeks, as seen at http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/big_global_accumlation.gif
Weather Zones (see text) as expected mid-week at 0000UTC on Wednesday (GFS/WW3/NOGAPS models) showing isobars, Sig wave height green lines, swell direction arrows SPCZ and STR.
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
SPCZ is expected to develop over Coral Sea to Fiji and is worth watching over the next week, its activity may turn into a tropical depression or stronger at any time.
STR/NZ = Sub-tropical Ridge
The STR is expected to stay over northern NZ, so that sailing around NZ is likely to be light variable winds until later this week when increasing NE winds are expected ahead of a trough from the north getting strong around Cape Reina by around Sunday 1 MARCH
See my yotpak at boatbooks.co.nz/weather.html for terms used.
Weathergram text only (and translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz
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