TC ULA

For many of us the transition from 2015 to 2016 , happening overnight tonight, is an event that will be marked with a party or at least some refreshmenst. For those in Samoa. TONGA, and eastern Fiji tonight and the early New Year will be spent preparing and bracing for TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA:

(ULA reminds me of Jeff Wayne’s “War of the Worlds” musical adaptation of H.G. Wells book)

 

From Fiji Met Service at http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20036.txt

 

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI 1216 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA [991HPA], CATEGORY 1, WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.1S
166.9W AT 302100UTC. TC ULA SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
MTSAT/GOES IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL REPORTS.
FOR MORE INFO ON TC ULA PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
ADVISORY at www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prod/20032.txt

*********************************************************************
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 07F [995HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.8S 177.7EE AT
302100UTC. TD07F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL REPORTS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A
LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 700HPA. SST
AROUND 30 DEGREE CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR TD07F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

*********************************************************************

 

Track map is at  http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/65648.html  (go there for up to date stuff)

image

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TC threat map is at http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/65661.html   (not shown here)

 

The future outlook of ULA is uncertain at tis stage, here is what the main computer models are expecting at this stage :

https://i0.wp.com/www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/06P_geps_latest.png

From http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

Bob McDavitt

PS: Beaming good thoughts to my Samoan/Tongan/Fijian Friends, and Happy New Year hugs to everyone.

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