Bob Blog 28 Feb

WEATHERGRAM

YOTREPS

Issued 28 February 2016

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

Tropical cyclone WINSTON

I repeat that I am willing to help ANY yacht with FREE weather information if they agree to fill up with medical supplies on their way to FIJI/TONGA as part of SEA MERCY to supply relief after this cyclone season. This way I sponsor humanity.

See http://www.seamercy.org/

or

https://www.facebook.com/metbobnz/posts/1731717857039648

WINSTON is slowly petering away (apologies for this pun, based on a Kiwi politician, at least he himself, MP of our Northland, is above such a rub).

Its central circulation is still spinning as a tropical depression on the Coral Sea

There’s a chance (rather low) that it may redevelop. It has warm sea surface temperatures in favour, but has lost its top clouds, so this is an unlikely chance.

Shown here:

 

Its higher clouds have been entrained into a trough that is crossing northern New Zealand. . image

as seen at http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/11P_gefs_latest.png

TC YALO was briefly alive between Southern Cooks and French Polynesia but has now faded.

Rainfall in the tropics over the past week shows the weakening of convection around Australia and an activation of convection between Cooks and French Polynesia, this is also now weakening.

image

image

 

Rain for the past week from http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/big_global_accumlation.gif

Panama to Galapagos:

As for departing this week— OK to go, but light winds at times. Good surface currants are expected.

WEATHER ZONES

image

Weather Zones (see text) as expected mid-week on Wednesday (GFS model) showing wind, isobars, Sig wave height green lines, swell direction purple arrows, SPCZ and STR.

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

SPCZ stretches from Solomons to in-between Cook Islands and French Polynesia this week and is expected to slowly weaken.

STR= Sub-tropical Ridge

HIGH travelling east across southern Tasman next few days and central NZ during mid-week then to east of, and about, central NZ for the remainder of the week. This should hold troughs away AFTER mid-week.

For NZ and Tasman Sea

Troughs are expected to cross northern NZ on Monday and early Tuesday local, associated with the entrainment of tropical air from the top half of WINSTON.

>>>>>> 

See my yotpak at boatbooks.co.nz/weather.html for terms used.

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