Bob Blog 10 Feb

WEATHERGRAM

YOTREPS

Compiled Sun 10 Feb 2019

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

THE TROPICS

Latest cyclone activity as at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and TCFP tropical Cyclone Formation Potential as seen at www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

image

The monsoonal trough that was over northern Australia earlier this month is now stretching across the Coral sea then in an arc around Vanuatu to north and then east of Fiji.

There are tropical depressions spaced out along this monsoonal trough, and there is a good chance that at least one of these may deepen into a tropical cyclone this week, but the models are having problems resolving the details, so it seems best to avoid sailing in this region for the coming week.

Sunday evening (Fiji time) weather map shows spaced out depressions, and ex TC NEIL between Fiji and Tonga with gale winds.

image

The rain map for the past 7 days clearly shows this monsoonal trough,

See https://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/big_global_accumlation.gif

image

WEATHER ZONES

image

Weather Zones (see text) as expected Wednesday 00UTC showing isobars, winds, waves(magenta) currents (small arrows), STR, and SPCZ. Pink area = lightning likely (high CAPE)

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

The SPCZ is draped around a monsoonal trough, and is likely to have at least one tropical low along its length this week. Avoid. The SPCZ the n stretches further to the southeast , touching southern parts of French Polynesia.

image

Accumulated rainfall for next week from windyty.com. CZ= convergence zone.

Subtropical ridge (STR)

Next HIGH is expected to spread from East Australia into Tasman Sea on Monday and then travel east along around 32S fading away to north of NZ on Wednesday.

Australia/Tasman Sea / New Zealand

With the Highs crossing central or southern Tasman Sea, the main wind flow north of latitude 35South is from the east, good for sailing from New Caledonia to Queensland.

Easterly winds are expected to get strong and seas rough near Northland from Thursday to Sunday local as a low from the tropics travels southwards to east of NZ.

Panama to Marquesas

Same as last week: OK to go any day this week with northerly winds for starters and a good tail current to current to 2N 85W. From there either peel off to the Galapagos Islands or follow the current along around 1deg north to 125W and then head for Marquesas Islands.

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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/

Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).

Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212

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Published by metbob

Pattern and Chaos

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