Compiled Sun 04 August 2019
Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.
Sea Surface temperature anomalies as at start of August may be seen at http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_sst.jsp?lt=global&lc=global&c=ssta
The main pattern changes are the ribbon of cooler than normal sea around the Galapagos. There is also a return to near normal in the Tasman Sea and a return to near normal off western Australia (an easing of the Positive Indian Dipole
To see how the annual weather cycle and the seasons are working out, we can check the average isobar maps for past 30 days and their anomaly from www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.html
The subtropical ridge is much the same as last month. The monsoonal trough has deepened and shifted north over Asia.
Zooming into the NZ area, and comparing monthly anomalies for end of last month with now, shows that the subtropical ridge STR is slightly north of where it was last month. The anomalous trough over NZ is closer to the mainland than last month,
The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and TCFP tropical Cyclone Formation Potential at www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html
It’s been a busy week in the Pacific and still is with ERICK, FLOSSIE and now GIL travelling west towards Hawaii. Also FRANCISCO near Japan.
There are areas of potential development in the China Sea, near Bangla Desh, and now also in the Atlantic. The Cyclone Season is heating up.
Weather Zones (see text) as expected Wednesday 00UTC showing isobars, winds, waves(magenta) STR, and SPCZ. Pink area = lightning likely (high CAPE)
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ stay over Solomons and stretch across norther Vanuatu o the Fiji /Samoa area.
Passing trough over the Gambier Islands on local Sunday/Monday 1014hPa.
Accumulated rainfall for next week from windyty.com.
Subtropical ridge (STR)
SAM went negative last week as expected allowing the cool air of the Southern Ocean to spread into the Tasman Sea/ NZ area with big swells. As a precursor for this the STR went north of NZ. The next High is now in the Tasman Sea and is expected to travel NE on Monday and then along 25 to 30s, being NE of NZ on Wednesday.
A weaker ridge is expected to travel across south Tasman on Thu and the South Island (only) on Friday.
Tasman Sea /NZ/Aus
Disturbed westerlies for western NZ pretty much for the whole week, but easing winds on Tuesday/Wednesday offer an opportunity for voyages to Tonga and maybe Fiji. However, it looks to be a no-go week from NZ to Australia.
Looks Ok for Noumea to South Port early this week, but not Ok after around Thursday.
Tahiti to Tonga
Looks good to go this week with trade winds.
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