Bob Blog 22 Dec



Compiled Sun 22 Dec 2019

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

On the 19th Dec, Australia has its hottest day for a second straight day as area face ‘catastrophic” fire conditions




The Tropics

The latest cyclone activity report is at and TCFP tropical Cyclone Formation Potential at


TC PANFONE is at 999hPa traveling west-northwest just to north of Palau, towards Philippines

There is high potential for cyclone formation to NW of Fiji this week.


Weather Zones (see text) as expected Wednesday 00UTC showing isobars, winds, waves(magenta) STR, and SPCZ. Pink area = lightning likely (high CAPE)


SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

The SPCZ is situated from PNG to Samoa and then fades off to the SE.

It is activating this week and expected to form tropical lows NW of Samoa and north of Fiji.

One of these is likely to deepen into a cycle by Friday and has 50% chance (1 model out of 2) to move to the Fiji area by the weekend.

SPCZ stretches into a trough /convergence zone over the Niue to Tahiti area,

So, it’s not a week for sailing around the South Pacific.


Accumulated rainfall for next week from

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH in the south Tasman Sea on Monday should stay there this week and send smaller Highs across the South Island and central NZ on Wednesday and again next Monday.

Tasman Sea /NZ/Aus

Low to NE of North Island on Monday expected to go off to SE by end of Tuesday.

Trough expected to travel NE across the country on Thursday and Friday followed by a SW flow.

Outlook for next week is for High to stay put feeding more troughs and SW winds to NZ.

For Noumea to Aus: With a blocked High in the Tasman sea, should be OK with SE winds for this route this week .


If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check to see what I offer.

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Weathergram archive (with translator) is at

Contact is or txt 6427 7762212


Published by metbob

Pattern and Chaos

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