Bob Blog 29 Dec 2019



Compiled Sun 29 Dec 2019

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

On Friday 27 Dec tropical cyclone SARAI went south past the west of Fiji

Using we can view the temperature/rain/wind and barometric pressure at the Nadi Airport observing station, showing the rise and fall and rise again of the wind as SARAI passed by. Peak gust 58 knots.



The Tropics

The latest cyclone activity report is at and TCFP tropical Cyclone Formation Potential at


TC PANFONE brought destruction to Philippines early last week

TC SARAI is currently heading for Nuku’alofa in Tonga but may swing left and go northeast.

There is high potential for TC formation between Guam and Palau this week



Weather Zones (see text) as expected Wednesday 00UTC showing isobars, winds, waves(magenta) STR(green), and SPCZ(red). Pink area = lightning likely (high CAPE)


SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

The SPCZ is mainly located from TC SARAI to Samoa to Southern Cooks his week.

So, it’s not a week for sailing around the South Pacific.


Accumulated rainfall for next week from

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH in the central to north Tasman Sea is blocked this week and will be reinforced by a new High over the south Tasman sea on Friday .

Tasman Sea /NZ/Aus

Some deep lows are expected east of NZ this week , blocking a High is the Tasman Sea and maintaining a SW flow over NZ.

These SW/S winds may often reach to 25S this week . Better to get to NZ next week.

For Noumea to Aus: With a blocked High in the Tasman sea, should be OK with SE winds for this route this week .


If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check to see what I offer.

Or Facebook at /

Weathergram with graphics is at (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).

Weathergram archive (with translator) is at

Contact is or txt 6427 7762212


Published by metbob

Pattern and Chaos

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