Bob Blog 29 March 2020



Compiled Sun 29 March 2020

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

There is a brief MJO active period expected in South Pacific during next two weeks and this increase the chances of a tropical cyclone.

Map of  Tropical  Cyclone formation potential :


At this stage the extended GFS model is starting to show a tropical low may form over Vanuatu around Thu 2 April and this MAY develop into a tropical cyclone for New Caledonia from 5 to 10 April and then move off Southeast to east of North Island during Easter.

Since most of the South Pacific has closed borders or increased restrictions on people from countries with Covid19 outbreaks there are NO vessels that I know of planning to sail around at present, so no need for my weekly blog.

I’ll resume my blog when we can start sailing again

Meanwhile, work on staying safe.

Published by metbob

Pattern and Chaos

Join the Conversation


  1. Hi Bob You just can’t go on holiday because we are not allowed to sail. 😀😀 We are addicted to receiving your weekly weather blog. I’m 73 and have been over or under the ocean all my life. I have been an avid weather watcher all my life, an amateur metrologist but I have learned so much from you weekly blogs. I have always looked at the sky, the sea and the barometer. My children once they were older would phone me in the winter and ask me for a weather report. Dad knew!😂😂 I’m a Kiwi, my wife is English and our yacht is in Westhaven Marina. We have sailed 25 thousand nautical miles in the last five years. At the moment we are in Western Australia. You have had and still do have an interesting occupation. It’s part science, part experience and part “how would one know” Good luck but don’t think you can retire. We need you as you have no tickets, tell it as it is! A true metroligist. All the best John Sharpe

    Sent from my iPhone


  2. Hi Bob.
    I am grateful for your weather updates weekly and use them to brief multiple teams within Customs and other agencies as well. Thank you.
    I note your comment about no sailing, however I have been informed by MFAT that 32 craft are heading to New Caledonia as part of a world yacht rally. They may find themselves be refused entry at many countries along the way. I have no update since late last week.
    Just FYI.

    Alane Nilsen
    Customs Liaison Officer to National Maritime Coordination Centre – Āpiha Kaitakawaenga Te Mana Ārai
    (Strategic Coordination Unit)
    New Zealand Customs Service | Te Mana Ārai o Aotearoa
    2 Seddul Bahr Road, Heretaunga, Upper Hutt, 5018
    DDI +64 4 528 1778
    Mobile +64 21 882 346 – after hours | |
    Mauri mahi, mauri ora – Do the work, get the rewards.
    I have been seconded to the COVID-19 Response until further notice so your email may not be attended to if it is for other matters. If you are concerned about this please contact my manager

    1. Hi there Alane.
      I think that group of yachts is the World Yacht Rally which does this route once a year .
      But they have their own weather guru and don’t use me.
      However I may change my mind and send a reduced weather grams concentrating on things like the possible New cal cyclone next week , but not the details of the various routes because , apart from the WYR group, there are only a few yachts sailing– mainly between panama and Marquesas–They left before shutdown.

      regards and keep up the good work.

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