Here are some examples of my voyage outlooks, forecasts and updates.

Voyage Forecast

Voyage Forecast Wellington to Noumea

Pressure reading for your barometer from Wellington at 3pm Tuesday is 1024.7 and slowly falling Situation and comments:

High pressure zone on weather map that is over central NZ today is now moving off to the north. This allows a northerly flow to form through Cook Strait on Wednesday (caused by wind streaming around mountains.

Front from South Island should cross North Island on Friday, preceded by NW winds and followed by SW winds.

On Sat and Sunday a small high should cross southern North Island and give us a SE to easterly flow into area north of Bay of Plenty From Mon to Wed 28 to 30 May a large Low will cross Tasman Sea — we should be north of NZ by then but will have to go westwards in the increasing Northerly flow.  The associated front should reach us on Wed–much weaker than it was in the Tasman Sea Sadly the front is likely to be followed by a slack trough with LIGHT winds, slowing us down around Norfolk Island. If we motor this section we can save a few days in the trip time.

Anyway finally around 3 June a SW to SE flow should click in for the last leg to Noumea.

 I am using EXPEDITION http://www.tasmanbaynav.co.nz/  for routing with latest Oceanic and GFS data output.  VPP for sailing up to 6.7 Kt.

 Disclaimer: weather is a mix of pattern and chaos. The real world unravels away from the models shown here. Computer data does not do well near a coast or in a trough.  In a tropical convergence zone computer gives averaged-out light winds, but occasional squalls can deliver 30 knots for 30 minutes. If your baro strays away from target pressure more than 5 hPa the forecast needs updating.

DECODE:   Time HH:MM is hours and minutes in UTC.  Lat and Long are in degrees and minutes PPPP is barometer in hPa, Wind is compass octant coming FROM and lull~avg~gust is in knots. HDG@kt is heading to in degrees true and knots. TWA is the angle between the true wind and the boat heading, P for wind on port and S for wind on Starboard. Waves are in metres, sig=average of top third, ocnl=1 in 66, or 3 per hour.

Departing from Wellington heads around noon Wednesday = 230000UTC,  head south

UTC—  HH:MM-|       Lat:/ Long:|    hPa|lull~avg~gust|COG-SOG|  TWA Sig~ocnl

23-May—00:00-|41:21S/174:50E|1026|-N-08~10~15|180-04.4| 176S       1.4~2.2m

When coast is clear go SE -we need to get well offshore to avoid shore-current

23-May—01:38-|41:28S/174:50E|1025|-N-08~10~15|121-05.0|P125       1.4~2.2m

23-May—03:57-|41:35S/175:05E|1025|-N-09~11~17|121-05.3|P122       1.4~2.0m

23-May—06:16-|41:42S/175:21E|1024|-N- 09~12~17|121-05.4|P122      1.4~2.2m

At next line turn left

23-May—08:45-|41:48S/175:36E|1025|-N-09~11~17|064-05.0|P068       1.4~2.2m

23-May—14:02-|41:38S/176:05E|1024|NNW08~10~15|064-04.9|P084   1.4~2.2m

23-May—18:41-|41:27S/176:33E|1023|-NW11~14~21|063-06.0|P098     1.4~2.2m

AT next line turn left

23-May—22:51-|41:16S/177:02E|1023|-NW15~19~29|036-05.8|P074     1.4~2.2m

24-May—05:24-|40:47S/177:29E|1021|-NW17~21~32|035-05.6|P085     1.6~2.4m

24-May—11:55-|40:18S/177:57E|1020|-NW15~19~29|035-05.8|P092     1.4~2.2m

24-May—18:11-|39:48S/178:24E|1019|WNW14~18~26|035-06.0|P110 1.3~1.9mF

25-May—00:12-|39:18S/178:50E|1019|-W-12~15~22|034-06.2|P133      1.4~2.0mF

After the front, and when the wind fades go north

25-May—07:08-|38:49S/179:16E|1020|-SW05~06~09|002-04.6|P125      1.2~1.8m*

25-May—15:31-|38:11S/179:17E|1022|-SE04~05~07|002-04.5| 137S       1.1~1.6m*

25-May—23:05-|37:32S/179:19E|1024|ESE10~13~19|001-05.7| 100S      1.1~1.6m

When easterly wind arrives go NW

26-May—05:40-|36:54S/179:20E|1024|-E-11~14~21|324-06.0| 121S        1.2~1.8m

26-May—10:56-|36:28S/178:57E|1025|ENE11~14~21|325-05.9| 113S     1.1~1.6m

26-May—16:44-|36:02S/178:34E|1025|ENE08~10~15|325-05.0| 096S     0.9~1.4m

26-May—23:35-|35:36S/178:11E|1025|-NE06~08~12|325-04.3| 074S      0.8~1.2m*

27-May—07:08-|35:10S/177:49E|1025|NNE06~08~11|325-04.1| 061S    0.7~1.1m*

27-May—14:09-|34:43S/177:27E|1026|NNE09~11~17|325-04.9| 066S    0.7~1.1m

27-May—19:58-|34:17S/177:05E|1025|-NE11~14~21|326-06.0| 076S      0.9~1.4m

28-May—01:11-|33:51S/176:43E|1025|-NE13~17~25|326-06.1| 080S      1.1~1.6m

28-May—06:22-|33:24S/176:21E|1024|-NE13~17~25|326-06.1| 079S      1.2~1.8m

28-May—11:32-|32:57S/176:00E|1024|-NE13~16~25|326-06.1| 080S      1.3~1.9m

28-May—16:45-|32:31S/175:39E|1023|-NE14~18~27|326-06.0| 077S     

28-May—22:03-|32:04S/175:18E|1022|-NE15~18~27|327-05.9| 073S     

29-May—03:24-|31:37S/174:58E|1021|-NE15~18~28|327-05.8| 068S     

29-May—08:45-|31:11S/174:37E|1020|NNE15~18~27|327-05.8| 063S    **

When we reach head winds turn right

29-May—14:07-|30:44S/174:17E|1019|NNE14~18~27|298-06.0| 086S   

29-May—19:13-|30:30S/173:46E|1017|NNE14~18~27|298-05.9| 082S   

30-May—00:20-|30:15S/173:15E|1016|NNE14~18~27|299-06.0| 077S   

When we reach head winds turn right

30-May—05:28-|30:00S/172:44E|1014|-N- 14~17~26|269-06.0| 093S     

30-May—10:29-|30:01S/172:09E|1013|NNW12~16~23|269-06.1| 077S F

30-May—16:11-|30:01S/171:34E|1013|NNW09~11~16|270-04.8| 067S F

30-May—23:25-|30:01S/170:59E|1013|NNW05~06~09|270-04.0| 063S *F

31-May—07:08-|30:01S/170:25E|1014|NNW03~04~06|270-04.3| 075S *

After the front, in the slack winds of the trough head for SE of Iles des Pins

31-May—14:34-|30:01S/169:50E|1014|NNW03~04~06|343-03.5| 002S *

31-May—23:28-|29:30S/169:39E|1014|-W-03~03~05|343-04.3|P076      *

01-Jun—06:34-|28:59S/169:28E|1014|WSW03~04~06|343-04.6|P100     *

01-Jun—13:32-|28:29S/169:17E|1015|-SW04~05~08|343-04.6|P114        *

01-Jun—20:33-|27:58S/169:06E|1015|-SW05~06~09|343-04.6|P123        *

02-Jun—03:34-|27:28S/168:56E|1016|-SW05~07~10|343-04.6|P127        *

02-Jun—10:35-|26:57S/168:45E|1016|-SW06~07~11|343-04.6|P124        *

02-Jun—17:39-|26:26S/168:35E|1016|-SW06~07~11|343-04.6|P124        *

03-Jun—00:49-|25:56S/168:24E|1017|SSW05~07~10|343-04.6|P132       *

03-Jun—08:16-|25:25S/168:14E|1017|-S-06~07~10|343-04.3|P149          *

Remainder of this table is just an outlook based on extended data

Please seek an update

03-Jun—16:05-|24:54S/168:04E|0000|-S-06~08~12|343-04.1|P164          *

04-Jun—00:10-|24:23S/167:54E|0000|SSE07~08~12|343-04.1|P172         *

04-Jun—08:29-|23:53S/167:44E|0000|SSE07~08~13|343-04.1|P180         *

04-Jun—16:51-|23:22S/167:34E|0000|SSE07~09~13|344-04.1| 173S        *

At SE end of Iles des Pins line us for the Noumea channel

 Use local charts to tweak this to avoid reefs

05-Jun—01:31-|22:51S/167:24E|0000|SSE07~09~14|301-04.3|P159         *

05-Jun—15:01-|22:17S/166:23E|0000|-SE07~09~13|ETA Noumea in pre-dawn hours

distance 1627.69nm        route time 13d 15h 01m              


*= motoring with light winds

**= motoring into the wind, or fall off for comfort but that will take longer.

Updates from ZKLF Radio fax on 3247.4, 5807, 9459, 13550.5 or 16340.1 kHz Or  High Seas on ZLM 6224 kHz and 12356 kHz at 0303Z, 0903Z, 1503Z and 2103Z and on 8297 kHz and 16531 kHz 30 minutes later or, for warnings, send email to query@saildocs.com, No subject,  saying

 SEND http://m.metservice.com/warnings/marine

Or email position report to bob@metbob.com

If your email allows attachments you can have a copy of a map showing the optimised route.

Trip Plan

Related resources

  • Link to Expedition Routing Software
  • Link to Predictwind.com service
  • Link to NZ Weather provider
  • Link to Australian Weather provider
  • Link to Fiji Weather provider

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