Bob Blog 25 Sep 2022

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

Compiled Sunday 25 September 2022



After devasting Puerto Rico, Tropical Cyclone Fiona travelled north and did an extra-tropical transition with cold air wrapping around and squeezing off the warm core. It then made land fall over Port aux Basques in Novia Scotia, Canada, with a measured baro of 913hPa, a new Canadian record.

The storm surge washed away houses:



The latest cyclone activity report is at and Tropical Cyclone Potential is from

We are having the late September flush with 6 cyclones.

IAN is approaching Florida, while

GASTION and HERMINE are also in the Atlantic and NEWTON is in the eastern Pacific. NORU is moving onto the Philippines.



Weather Zones Mid-week GFS model showing isobars, winds, waves (purple), rain (red), STR (Subtropical Ridge), SPCZ (South Pacific Convergence Zone) CZ (Convergence Zone) and CAPE (lime)


CAPE maps from EC and GFS for mid-week as see by, note the difference between models. The features shown are for Sunday


SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone and STR (Sub tropical ridge).


Rain Accumulation next five days from

The SPCZ stretches from Coral Sea. L2 is forming east of Fiji and expected to go to Tonga. Avoid.


Low L1 in mid Tasman Sea is expected to go southeast to south of Aotearoa NZ.

Low L3 east of Aotearoa NZ is expected to travel off to the northeast followed by H1.

Low L4 is expected to form over New South Wales by mid-week and then travel towards North Island by early October. Avoid.


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