Bob Blog 14 Nov

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

Compiled Sunday 14 November 2021

Gulf Harbour Radio

NZ immigration has reduced the required managed hotel isolation Q time from 14 days to 7 days for those flying in , and to 10 days for yachts with time spent at sea counting, so this will help those sailing into NZ from overseas.

Tomorrow the South Indian Cyclone season nominally starts and lasts until 30 April 2022.

Last Wednesday the equatorial westerly winds in the Indian Ocean helped produce a twinning of lows near 10degrees north and 10 degrees south

The Flooding of Australia

It has only taken a week and one muggy and windy low to bring wind and rain affecting half of Australia as reported here http://www.9news.com.au/national/weather-forecast-australia-eastern-states-brace-for-second-day-of-heavy-rain-with-potential-of-more-flooding-and-hail/e61b0587-f468-4334-b820-710b8645dec1

Here is that low 997hPa as it appeared on Armistice Day 11/11/21 on windy.com

And at meteo.nc/nouvelle-caledonie

It broke many rainfall records, even Alice Springs got over 100mm in a day, Perth got a double monthly average rainfall in one day and top weekly accumulation was 440mm at Samuel Hill in coastal Queensland,

TROPICS

The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical Cyclone Potential is from www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

We are having the typical mid -November hiatus with no cyclones around at present.

WEATHER ZONES

Weather Zones Mid-week GFS model showing isobars, winds, waves(magenta), Rain (Blue),

STR (Subtropical Ridge), SPCZ (South Pacific Convergence Zone) and CAPE (in pink)

CAPE mid-week as seen by ECMWF and GFS from Predictwind.com, with vastly different ideas this week

.

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

The SPCZ is stretching from PNG across Solomon Islands and northern Vanuatu to Samoa.

A convergence zone over French Polynesia is expected to fade by mid-week.

A low, L3, is likely to form between New Caledonia and Fiji by Saturday and then travel southeast to be east of the North Island by Monday 22 Nov.

Rain Accumulation next five days from windy.com

HIGHS and LOWS

HIGH H1 between Fiji and NZ is moving east along 32S.

LOW L1 980 in south Tasman Sea—the one that flooded much of Australia – is travelling ESE across the south of NZ, making a zone of strong westerly winds over NZ until Tuesday turning SW on Wednesday and Thursday.

HIGH H2 is expected to form east of New South Wales on Wednesday and then travel east across the North Island on Friday.

LOW L2 is expected to be in the Australia Bite by mid-week, cross Tasmania on Thursday and turn into a trough reaching the Tasman Sea to South Island by Saturday.

Looks Ok to sail to NZ from the tropics this week or next week, but avoid L3.

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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

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Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212

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